Estimado Mazzamauro,

Muy buena su variante... ya que Baruch le prohibió que subiera gráficos: por lo menos nos actualiza con videos. Demoledor lo que mostraba ABC.

En esa misma línea leí hace unos días un articulo (muy sencillo, con una explicación un tanto lineal... pero que echaría luz sobre el por qué de la burbuja inmobiliaria). Aquí van algunos extractos:


To service debt the economy needs to generate income and profits. In a slowdown, profits are hit hard and so is the ability to service debts.
The market is pricing a global slowdown and people are running to the Dollar to pay down debts.
With a housing debt burden in excess of $2 Trillion, the economy will not survive a slowdown for long before debt IMPLODES.
. . . . .
By 2000 the public had been whipped into an Internet speculative frenzy. They then got caught in the headlights of a Nasdaq crash. Individual balance sheets were hit but the speculative mood wasn’t dampened, it was transferred to Real Estate through the Fed slashing interest rates.
In other words, from 2003 to 2006 the public was still in a playful mood.
“Yeah sure, my portfolio is down, but housing prices are strong and getting stronger. I’ll hop on board that train and make up for my Stock Market loses.”
The Real Estate market became the only game in town.


2006
What would the object of speculation be if the Fed slashed interest rates? What asset class could even remotely be big enough to substitute for Housing?
The answer, for a battle-wearied public, is possibly none. (No asset class is big enough to absorb the necessary funds to make up for the Real Estate bubble).
. . . . .
Assuming Housing is now Kaput, does the public have the stomach to continue speculating?
And if they do, where would they speculate?
These are the million $ questions and ofcourse nobody knows for certain.
I am however a believer in cycles. I believe in the Kondratieff Cycle and I believe we are now approaching the Coldest Part of the K-Winter.


By Greg Silberman (Relax! We're Still in a Gold Bull Market)

www.kitco.com/ind/Silberman/sep212006.html




De yapa (y solo para usted estimado forista):

www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/cycle.html

(con dedicatoria personalizada de Ian Gordon para Mazzamauro) :D

Quote of the Day:
"There is no way to avoid the collapse of a boom brought on by credit expansion." Ludwig Von Mises


Regards,

GG